Contents:

This page supplements infornation provided in the Post-CCEP: Living with Canker chapter in my books. In my book, Florida's Citrus Canker Epidemic, a series of five graphs (Figures 9.1 to 9.5) provide a quick look at Florida's citrus production, acreage and value. In this chapter, I wrote::

"The war against citrus canker was heralded by the Department as the last chance for residents to save their precious groves. Exagerrated claims were made by the Department that citrus represented a 'nine billion dollar' industry. This value came from a cost-benefit model. In 1995, the value of Florida's citrus in an 'on-tree' basis was one billion dollars and by 2020, it is 776 million dollars, a decline of about 30% in 25 years. Florida's citrus acreage and production have been declining for decades, while prices (juice and fruit) have been increasing

In almost every graph, it is clear that the commercial citrus industry in Florida has been massively reduced in the last 3 decades. I wrote in 2017, "The decrease in acreage generally means the lost production has little chance of recovery in the near terms," and now eight years later, I believe it more than ever.

In 2017, I cited four main drivers, which are Urban development, competition from California and other states and abroad, principally Brazil, Diseases principally citrus greening and black spot, and changes to more profitable crops. After hurricanes Irma (2017) and Ian (2022), the increase intensity of hurricanes can be added to the list of drivers. The pessimism of groveowners is best seen from the declining acreage and years of minimal replanting in the last two decades.

The source of information for this website page and in my two books, comes from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Southern Region, Florida Field Office and is referred to as the NASS report. The data in my printed books is now outdated. However I can update the information here using recent data from NASS as issued in February 2025. The pdf file containing their latest report. Florida Citrus Statistics, 2023-2024. I will update this page in February 2026. Selected graphs and tables from this report are shown in the following link: NASS Data- Overview. The last 3 tables provide the data to calculate a current on-tree value of 221 million dollars for Florida citrus. This is a far cry from the 9-billion dollar industry.

Production in millions of boxes

The NASS report provides an excellent presentation of long term production trends. Florida citrus production has declined from 7.6 million tons to 0.91 million tons in 20 years or a drop of 88%. The same decline is seen if measured in boxes of citrus, from 169 million to 20.2 million boxes or a drop of 88%. Based on NASS data, citrus production has not been below 25 million boxes since the growing season of 1929 to 1930, during the Great Depression.

Citrus Production (millions of boxes) using NASS data

NASS Commercial Trees and Tree Planting Density plots , Page 39:

Cmmercial trees are currently below 40 million trees. In 1995 and 1996, there were approximately 108 million trees. Prior to 2002, grove owners were significantly decreasing the tree spacing,to maintain or increase production.

Total Acreage

Citrus acreage has been steadily declining since 1995. The similar decline trend is seen in the bearing acres and the estimates of number of citrus trees.

Net Change in Acreage per year

The net change in acreage in 2024 was a negative 57,551 acres.. Hurricanes such as Irma in 2017 and Ian in 2022 would have a significant impact on tree bearing acreage, as noted in the report. However, there was assistance given after the hurricanes, so groveowners could replant. It is likely many chose to sell their groves rather than replant. The average loss of acreage per year for 2008 to 2024 is 19,113 acres..

Note that prior to 2008, surveys were done every 2 years.. Because the data represented two years between surveys, the net change values were divided by two. This worked well to identify the long term trend in the data.

Net Change in Acreage (1988 to 2024)

As shown below, the loss of 57,551 acres in 2024 was close to the all time estimated record loss of 63,500 acres per year loss in growing season 2006 and 2007.

Note that prior to 2008, surveys were done every 2 years.. Because the data represented two years between surveys, the net change values were divided by two. This worked well to identify the long term trend in the data

As shown in the graph below, on a percentage basis, the loss in acreage in 2024 was far worse than any other decline. It is estimated that the loss in 2024 was 21%. The likelihood of a recovery in citrus production is unlikely, when the acreage is being lossed at an accelerated pace and replanting is minimal at best.

 

New Planting of Citrus

Citrus trees will yield fewer fruits as they mature. For this reason, grove owners must always replant some of their trees. The recent data shows that replanting in 2024 has declined to a new all time low of 4,751 acres. Data range extension adjustment was used. Data are from Page 38 of the NASS report.

 

 

The plot below shows the percentage of acres planted as a percentage of the acres identified in the survey. Data range extension adjustment was used. Data are from Page 38 of the NASS report.

 

Value of Citrus in Florida

The data for this plot comes fron the NASS report. On-tree value or price relates to the expected returns to groveowners after the costs of picking, hauling and packing have been removed. Prices are based on records of commercial fresh fruit sale and processed fruit returns. In the past 25 years, the value has approximately tripled.

As shown below, the estimated on-tree value of citrus is approximately 200 million dollars. This calculated on-tree value is calculated using NASS data from the latest report. To arrive at the total, it was necessary to add the on-tree values as calculated for all orange varieties, all grapefruit varieties, and the speciality fruits, as given on pages 17 to 19 of the NASS report. .